Methodology
How tips are selected, priced, and filtered before publication.
How edge is found
We estimate the true chance of an outcome, compare it to the price the market is offering, and only publish when that gap is large enough to matter. That gap is edge.
Form, rates, matchup metrics and sport-specific indicators.
Injuries, rest, motivation, travel and other situational factors.
Available odds, movement and how efficient the price looks.
No forced tips. If the edge is unclear, we pass.
When a tip qualifies
Worked example: book odds, no-vig fair price, and expected value.
1 ÷ 2.10 = 0.476. This still includes the bookmaker margin.
After removing overround across the full market, the fair price is closer to this.
Model + context output for this selection.
Our 52% is above the fair ~45% and the book’s 47.6%. Candidate for a tip.
If our probability does not clear both the market price and our internal floor, the selection is not published — even if it “looks good” narratively.
Minimum edge required
A small edge is not enough. We require a minimum gap between our probability and the market before a tip is allowed through. That floor exists to filter noise, thin prices and forced opinions.
No tip — even if the narrative is strong.
Eligible for publication with an appropriate unit stake.
Stake sizing
Baseline stake is 1 unit flat. We only move away from 1u when confidence is clearly different (for example 0.5u on thinner spots, up to about 1.25u on the strongest).
We publish units, not currency, so the public record stays comparable across bankrolls. Convert units to cash with your own bankroll size.
Open Bankroll Calculator →Price quality (CLV)
Closing Line Value (CLV) asks a simple question: were our prices better than the market’s final price before the event started? Consistently beating the close is one of the best signs that a process has real edge — more reliable than a short winning streak.
Whether tipped prices, on average, beat the closing line for that market.
A promise of profit next week. It is a long-run process check, not a marketing slogan.
What is not tipped
- We do not tip every game or fill a daily quota
- We do not publish when the edge sits below our probability floor
- We do not force tips in markets we cannot price reliably
- We do not chase steam without our own assessed edge
- We do not size stakes in currency for the public record